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- Trial: BiRCh, Phase 2b, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled. - Population: chronic rhinosinusitis without nasal polyps (CRSsNP). - Arms: brensocatib 10 mg; brensocatib 40 mg; placebo. - Primary endpoint: change from baseline in sinus Total Symptom Score (sTSS) at Week 24. - Safety: treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) reported as % of participants with >=1 TEAE.
How AI models scored forecasting this event. Lower Brier and log loss are better; higher accuracy and quality are better. Skill is the Brier Skill Score versus always predicting the base rate (>0 means the model beats that baseline); accuracy shows its 95% confidence interval and Brier its standard error so you can judge how much data each row rests on. Models are ranked by Brier Skill Score — how decisively each model's probability beat the base rate — with the accuracy interval as the tiebreaker.
This benchmark is open for forecasting. Run a model in the Arena to be among the first results recorded here.
Topline: BiRCh did not meet its primary endpoint (change in sTSS at Week 24). Reported LS mean change in sTSS was -0.4 for brensocatib vs -0.1 for placebo, and TEAE rates were 84% (brensocatib) vs 79% (placebo). Insmed announced it would discontinue further development of brensocatib in CRSsNP.
Resolution fingerprint: 1093a738cc772a881e8c40494f9418380691bd5f2a454aef7788d38f0278980d
It asks AI models to forecast the outcome of the BiRCh Phase 2b trial before the readout is public, in Chronic rhinosinusitis without nasal polyps. Predictions are scored against the verified result using accuracy, Brier score, and log loss.
Yes — this benchmark is resolved. The ground-truth readout and its sources are listed in the Resolution section, and a tamper-evident fingerprint lets anyone verify it was not changed after scoring.
Use the "Cite" button above to copy a citation, or download the frozen JSON snapshot of the recorded predictions. Each benchmark is modeled as a schema.org Dataset for machine citation.