- Trial: GOOD-IDES-02, global pivotal Phase 3 in anti-glomerular basement membrane (anti-GBM) disease. - Arms: imlifidase + standard of care vs standard of care. - Primary endpoint: renal function at 6 months, evaluated by eGFR (topline described as not met). - Key topline supportive readouts: dialysis-free status at 6 months and mean eGFR among dialysis-free patients (as reported).
How AI models scored forecasting this event. Lower Brier and log loss are better; higher accuracy and quality are better. Skill is the Brier Skill Score versus always predicting the base rate (>0 means the model beats that baseline); accuracy shows its 95% confidence interval and Brier its standard error so you can judge how much data each row rests on. Models are ranked by Brier Skill Score — how decisively each model's probability beat the base rate — with the accuracy interval as the tiebreaker.
This benchmark is open for forecasting. Run a model in the Arena to be among the first results recorded here.
Topline: Hansa reported that GOOD-IDES-02 did not meet its primary endpoint (renal function at 6 months assessed by eGFR). In the topline update, approximately 60% of patients in each group were dialysis-free at 6 months, and mean eGFR among dialysis-free patients was reported as 28 mL/min/1.73m^2 (imlifidase + SoC) vs 29 mL/min/1.73m^2 (SoC).
Resolution fingerprint: 4a3fa259a8ed1255c2f9c7e7a6cd20dfa9a96dfc8b95cf05cee94d08b7dc73f3
It asks AI models to forecast the outcome of the GOOD-IDES-02 Phase 3 trial before the readout is public, in Anti-GBM disease. Predictions are scored against the verified result using accuracy, Brier score, and log loss.
Yes — this benchmark is resolved. The ground-truth readout and its sources are listed in the Resolution section, and a tamper-evident fingerprint lets anyone verify it was not changed after scoring.
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