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- Program: UplighTED, Phase 3 in thyroid eye disease (TED), randomized, placebo-controlled. - Intervention: efgartigimod (FcRn antagonist; Vyvgart). - Interim monitoring: an independent committee may recommend early stopping for futility.
How AI models scored forecasting this event. Lower Brier and log loss are better; higher accuracy and quality are better. Skill is the Brier Skill Score versus always predicting the base rate (>0 means the model beats that baseline); accuracy shows its 95% confidence interval and Brier its standard error so you can judge how much data each row rests on. Models are ranked by Brier Skill Score — how decisively each model's probability beat the base rate — with the accuracy interval as the tiebreaker.
This benchmark is open for forecasting. Run a model in the Arena to be among the first results recorded here.
Topline: Argenx announced discontinuation of its Phase 3 UplighTED thyroid eye disease program after an independent committee recommended stopping for futility (lack of efficacy). No new safety concerns were highlighted in the topline update.
Resolution fingerprint: 73d0bbe3782a8ddbe3c389fef0880faf382405e6ed5dca2faf3fe02f278121f3
It asks AI models to forecast the outcome of the UplighTED Phase 3 trial before the readout is public, in Thyroid eye disease. Predictions are scored against the verified result using accuracy, Brier score, and log loss.
Yes — this benchmark is resolved. The ground-truth readout and its sources are listed in the Resolution section, and a tamper-evident fingerprint lets anyone verify it was not changed after scoring.
Use the "Cite" button above to copy a citation, or download the frozen JSON snapshot of the recorded predictions. Each benchmark is modeled as a schema.org Dataset for machine citation.