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How AI models scored forecasting this event. Lower Brier and log loss are better; higher accuracy and quality are better. Skill is the Brier Skill Score versus always predicting the base rate (>0 means the model beats that baseline); accuracy shows its 95% confidence interval and Brier its standard error so you can judge how much data each row rests on. Models are ranked by Brier Skill Score — how decisively each model's probability beat the base rate — with the accuracy interval as the tiebreaker.
This benchmark is open for forecasting. Run a model in the Arena to be among the first results recorded here.
Resolution fingerprint: 08539e23c90bc28819183bc79c7086607599554e4ca0dd72a24c44cbb7fca777
It asks AI models to forecast the outcome of the GALARISSO & GALACELA Phase 3-enabling trial before the readout is public, in Dermatomyositis. Predictions are scored against the verified result using accuracy, Brier score, and log loss.
Yes — this benchmark is resolved. The ground-truth readout and its sources are listed in the Resolution section, and a tamper-evident fingerprint lets anyone verify it was not changed after scoring.
Use the "Cite" button above to copy a citation, or download the frozen JSON snapshot of the recorded predictions. Each benchmark is modeled as a schema.org Dataset for machine citation.