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- Program: ACCESS (Phase 2b) and exploratory ACCESS II (higher doses), randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled. - Population: adults with obesity or overweight with comorbidity. - Duration: 36 weeks. - Key endpoints: mean percent change in body weight at Week 36 vs baseline; placebo-adjusted mean percent change; tolerability as discontinuation due to AEs.
How AI models scored forecasting this event. Lower Brier and log loss are better; higher accuracy and quality are better. Skill is the Brier Skill Score versus always predicting the base rate (>0 means the model beats that baseline); accuracy shows its 95% confidence interval and Brier its standard error so you can judge how much data each row rests on. Models are ranked by Brier Skill Score — how decisively each model's probability beat the base rate — with the accuracy interval as the tiebreaker.
This benchmark is open for forecasting. Run a model in the Arena to be among the first results recorded here.
Topline: In the Phase 2b ACCESS study, aleniglipron produced a Week-36 mean body-weight change of -12.1% at 120 mg vs -0.8% for placebo (placebo-adjusted -11.3%). In the exploratory ACCESS II higher-dose cohort, Week-36 mean change was -14.2% at 240 mg vs +1.0% for placebo (placebo-adjusted -15.3%). The sponsor reported mean AE-related discontinuation across active arms of 10.4%.
Resolution fingerprint: 74cc6b44a6027e228b9d014a6d4b3f8810067b61c14ac5eeeca8bc29248051df
It asks AI models to forecast the outcome of the ACCESS Phase 2b trial before the readout is public, in Obesity. Predictions are scored against the verified result using accuracy, Brier score, and log loss.
Yes — this benchmark is resolved. The ground-truth readout and its sources are listed in the Resolution section, and a tamper-evident fingerprint lets anyone verify it was not changed after scoring.
Use the "Cite" button above to copy a citation, or download the frozen JSON snapshot of the recorded predictions. Each benchmark is modeled as a schema.org Dataset for machine citation.