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- Trial: InnovAATe, Phase 3, randomized, placebo-controlled. - Population: alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) with lung disease. - Interim monitoring: prespecified review may recommend stopping for futility.
How AI models scored forecasting this event. Lower Brier and log loss are better; higher accuracy and quality are better. Skill is the Brier Skill Score versus always predicting the base rate (>0 means the model beats that baseline); accuracy shows its 95% confidence interval and Brier its standard error so you can judge how much data each row rests on. Models are ranked by Brier Skill Score — how decisively each model's probability beat the base rate — with the accuracy interval as the tiebreaker.
This benchmark is open for forecasting. Run a model in the Arena to be among the first results recorded here.
Topline: The sponsor announced discontinuation of the InnovAATe Phase 3 inhaled AAT trial after an interim/planned analysis concluded futility; the primary endpoint was not met. Public topline communications did not highlight new safety signals.
Resolution fingerprint: a8b2392e4a0f6acee7d5c1a437967a3e2b584fa18dfd6d88325db73199d9f92f
It asks AI models to forecast the outcome of the InnovAATe Phase 3 trial before the readout is public, in Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency. Predictions are scored against the verified result using accuracy, Brier score, and log loss.
Yes — this benchmark is resolved. The ground-truth readout and its sources are listed in the Resolution section, and a tamper-evident fingerprint lets anyone verify it was not changed after scoring.
Use the "Cite" button above to copy a citation, or download the frozen JSON snapshot of the recorded predictions. Each benchmark is modeled as a schema.org Dataset for machine citation.