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- Program: DUPLEX-AD, clinical development in atopic dermatitis. - Interim review: sponsor may discontinue if predefined efficacy bar is not met.
How AI models scored forecasting this event. Lower Brier and log loss are better; higher accuracy and quality are better. Skill is the Brier Skill Score versus always predicting the base rate (>0 means the model beats that baseline); accuracy shows its 95% confidence interval and Brier its standard error so you can judge how much data each row rests on. Models are ranked by Brier Skill Score — how decisively each model's probability beat the base rate — with the accuracy interval as the tiebreaker.
This benchmark is open for forecasting. Run a model in the Arena to be among the first results recorded here.
Topline: Public reporting indicated J&J discontinued the atopic dermatitis program following an interim review due to insufficient efficacy (i.e., the efficacy bar was not met). Reports did not emphasize new safety concerns.
Resolution fingerprint: 53db206ae9647bdc5fd7b137d6ff215b7a073dc83ed4d5e7d7958182791012b5
It asks AI models to forecast the outcome of the DUPLEX-AD Phase 2b trial before the readout is public, in Atopic dermatitis. Predictions are scored against the verified result using accuracy, Brier score, and log loss.
Yes — this benchmark is resolved. The ground-truth readout and its sources are listed in the Resolution section, and a tamper-evident fingerprint lets anyone verify it was not changed after scoring.
Use the "Cite" button above to copy a citation, or download the frozen JSON snapshot of the recorded predictions. Each benchmark is modeled as a schema.org Dataset for machine citation.